The moral of this story… polls can be wrong, are most certainly wrong. In the case of our riding, they were off by 11% of the vote.

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Of note today is the website http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html where they have the latest forecasts, updated yesterday, of all of the polls into a riding by riding breakdown.
We are going to record their forecasts and see just how they do after the reality.

Kingston and the Islands
Forecast Reality
C 23% 23% (14,928)
Lib 58.9% 55% (36,421)
NDP 13.9% 17% (11,185)
Green 3.7% 4% (2,933)
96% likelihood of a liberal win

Bay of Quinte
Forecast Reality
P 38.6 34% (19,882)
Lib 39.3 51% (29,366)
NDP 17.6 12% (7,081)
Green 3.9 2% (1,278)
50% likiehood of liberal win –

And now our own
Hasting Lennox Addington
forecast reality
P 46.8 42% (20,440)
Lib 31.7 43% (20,813)
NDP 18.1 13% (6,217)
Green 3.5 3% (1,449)
81% chance of conservative win – WRONG