{"id":6540,"date":"2015-10-20T09:50:36","date_gmt":"2015-10-20T13:50:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/?p=6540"},"modified":"2015-10-20T09:51:46","modified_gmt":"2015-10-20T13:51:46","slug":"election-day-results-vs-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/2015\/10\/election-day-results-vs-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Election day results vs forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The moral of this story&#8230; polls can be wrong, are most certainly wrong.  In the case of our riding, they were off by 11% of the vote.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;<br \/>\nOf note today is the website http:\/\/www.threehundredeight.com\/p\/canada.html where they have the latest forecasts, updated yesterday, of all of the polls into a riding by riding breakdown.<br \/>\nWe are going to record their forecasts and see just how they do after the reality.<\/p>\n<p>Kingston and the Islands<br \/>\nForecast   Reality<br \/>\nC 23%       23% (14,928)<br \/>\nLib 58.9%   55% (36,421)<br \/>\nNDP 13.9%   17% (11,185)<br \/>\nGreen 3.7%    4% (2,933)<br \/>\n96% likelihood of a liberal win<\/p>\n<p>Bay of Quinte<br \/>\nForecast    Reality<br \/>\nP 38.6      34% (19,882)<br \/>\nLib 39.3    51% (29,366)<br \/>\nNDP 17.6    12% (7,081)<br \/>\nGreen 3.9    2% (1,278)<br \/>\n50% likiehood of liberal win &#8211; <\/p>\n<p>And now our own<br \/>\nHasting Lennox Addington<br \/>\nforecast    reality<br \/>\nP 46.8      42% (20,440)<br \/>\nLib 31.7    43% (20,813)<br \/>\nNDP 18.1    13% (6,217)<br \/>\nGreen 3.5    3% (1,449)<br \/>\n81% chance of conservative win &#8211; WRONG<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The moral of this story&#8230; polls can be wrong, are most certainly wrong. In the case of our riding, they were off by 11% of the vote. &#8212;&#8212; Of note today is the website http:\/\/www.threehundredeight.com\/p\/canada.html where they have the latest forecasts, updated yesterday, of all of the polls into a riding by riding breakdown. We [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":494,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-life-the-universe-and-everything"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/494"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6540"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6543,"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6540\/revisions\/6543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starlightcascade.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}